Most major automobile companies have promised that their Level 5 autonomous vehicle will be on the road in a very near future possible 2018, 2019, and 2020. It is however 2020 already! We do not witness near level 5 autonomy in any of the autonomous vehicle companies.
I have been worried about the hype of the autonomous vehicle industry’s fully autonomous level. There have been multiple AI winters due to the same mistake made by AI researchers during the last several decades. I studied AI during two of the AI winter periods. The mistake was to promise what they cannot provide. Level 5 fully autonomy is more like an ideal concept for now at least to me. Level 5 autonomy cannot be materialized in the near future.
The article from the IEEE spectrum, Surprise! 2020 Is Not the Year for Self-Driving Car shows the Autonomous Vehicle industry will shift its focus on Level 4. Some researchers note Level 4 as the Human Centered AI.
This is not a dire expectation in the areas of autonomous driving research. This means, on the contrary, unlike nicely curated video demos from the automobile industry, there still are many challenges to be addressed by researchers.
References:
- The Atlantic, 7 Arguments Against the Autonomous-Vehicle Utopia, Dec 2018
- IEEE Spectrum Article, Surprise! 2020 Is Not the Year for Self-Driving Car, Apr 2020
